Societe Generale Securities G20 after the four risk points or trigger the market down

Societe Generale Securities: G20 after the four risk points or trigger prices down from the WeChat public number "XYSTRATEGY" Author: Wang Delun Zhang Qiyao Zhou Lin investment outlook points: the index of the slope has been entered orbit concussion City, may be of interest to G20 after the trigger prices down the risk of food market index after ending, the slope has been rebounding from orbit into the shock in August 15th, we mention the June layout in the first, 7, August to two month rally, released the report "" eat "Market Wrap, selection of blue chip value", clearly put forward the index up space is limited, but the G20 stability is still in the window down, also do not have to worry about excessive conversion, rebound to the shock of the city". So far the rhythm and logic have been verified. On the one hand, the Commission, the CBRC to tighten the cross-border mergers and acquisitions of financial regulatory rules will be introduced after the rumors, the week the market rumors that China Insurance Regulatory Commission to tighten the universal insurance and once caused panic, although universal insurance withdrawal of A shares has been the rumor but is bound to increase the difficulty of admission, as we reported earlier has been emphasizing the inhibition of asset prices bubble and tighter regulation will eventually lead to incremental funding expected marginal decline, restricting the index upward." On the other hand, once the downward adjustment of G20 stability window will not easily make the market fear, but rather to pick up chips, do business, as we have said before "within the G20 short period before, down and do not have to be overly pessimistic, can even reverse the game." Do not chase short-term affect hot plate or excessive lifting position to the risk benefit ratio and non emotional scale as the only influence the investment decision, and. The recent communication with customers, we feel a lot of US investors lack of action "on the blue chip index, value will have relative gains" judgment to be recognized, but from the investment decision, the market once the plate changes, but may hold "no immediate risk" mentality of trying to "a stroke". But this year, the market often feel safer, or when not moving poked out unitary moths in everyone, once the G20 stability window in the past, risk appetite may be down, still follow the risk point. Therefore, from the point of view of risk benefit ratio, it is not recommended to chase the fundamentals without marginal changes, driven by emotions or risk preferences of the plate, it is not recommended at this time to enhance the position. G20 may trigger the market down risk point 1, the expected difference in the regulatory level. After the stability of the window, the regulation of the less worries, the attitude may be more stringent, more clearly, the financial work conference may also discuss the framework of the three macro prudential regulatory framework. 2, bond market volatility and the negative impact of credit risk. This wave of stock market rebound, risk-free rate of return is also an important driving factor, the bond market to adjust the logic of short-term impact. The central bank to restart the 14 day reverse repurchase reduced overnight money supply is a continuation of financial deleveraging, and "curb asset price bubble" means have impact on term spreads and credit spreads, credit spreads narrowed sharply in June especially after does not exclude the rebound, thus affecting the risk appetite, and have a negative impact on the stock market. In addition, the fourth quarter is the peak of credit debt maturity, does not rule out the risk of the loan in the form of appropriate credit risk to repair the bond market pricing, which is to suppress the bubble.相关的主题文章: